Jack comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Zed 14 August 2011 10:23AM

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Comment author: Jack 17 August 2011 04:08:02AM 2 points [-]

Of course, we almost never reach this level of ignorance in practice,

I think this is actually too weak. Hypothesis specification of any kind requires some kind of working model/theory/map of the external world. Otherwise the hypothesis doesn't have semantic content. And once you have that model some not totally ignorant prior will fall out. You're right that 50% is the probability of total ignorance, but this is something of a conceptual constant that falls out of the math-- you can't actually specify a hypothesis with such little information.

Comment author: komponisto 17 August 2011 04:58:57AM 0 points [-]

You're right that 50% is the probability of total ignorance, but this is something of a conceptual constant that falls out of the math

Yes, that's exactly right! It is a conceptual constant that falls out of the math. It's purely a formality. Integrating this into your conceptual scheme is good for the versatility of your conceptual scheme, but not for much else -- until, later, greater versatility proves to be important.

People have a great deal of trouble accepting formalities that do not appear to have concrete practical relevance. This is why it took so long for the numbers 0 and 1 to be accepted as numbers.

Comment author: Zed 17 August 2011 01:35:44PM *  0 points [-]

It's purely a formality

I disagree with this bit. It's only purely a formality when you consider a single hypothesis, but when you consider a hypothesis that is comprised of several parts, each of which uses the prior of total ignorance, then the 0.5 prior probability shows up in the real math (that in turn affects the decisions you make).

I describe an example of this here: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/73g/take_heed_for_it_is_a_trap/4nl8?context=1#4nl8

If you think that the concept of the universal prior of total ignorance is purely a formality, i.e. something that can never affect the decisions you make, then I'd be very interested in your thoughts behind that.