Wei_Dai comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Zed 14 August 2011 10:23AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 17 August 2011 09:56:35AM 2 points [-]

I fully acknowledge that it's a rare situation when that's all we know.

When is this ever the situation?

Usually, if we know enough to be able to state the hypothesis, we already have enough information to drive the probability away from 50%. I grant this. But 50% is still where the probability gets driven away from.

Can you give an example of "driving the probability away from 50%"? I note that no one responded to my earlier request for such an example.

Comment author: lessdazed 17 August 2011 09:25:01PM -1 points [-]

When is this ever the situation?...Can you give an example of "driving the probability away from 50%"? I note that no one responded to my earlier request for such an example.

No one can give an example because it is logically impossible for it to be the situation, it's not just rare. It cannot be that "All we know is that our hypothesis is either true or false." because to know that something is a hypothesis entails knowing more than nothing. It's like saying "knowing that a statement is either false or a paradox, but having no information at all as to whether it is false or a paradox".

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