Wei_Dai comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Zed 14 August 2011 10:23AM

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Comment author: komponisto 17 August 2011 01:13:55AM *  5 points [-]

A wise person once said (emphasis -- and the letter c -- added):

"Uncertainty exists in the map, not in the territory. In the real world, the coin has either come up heads, or come up tails. Any talk of 'probability' must refer to the information that I have about the coin - my state of partial ignorance and partial knowledge - not just the coin itself. Furthermore, I have all sorts of theorems showing that if I don't treat my partial knowledge a certain way, I'll make stupid bets. If I've got to plan, I'll plan for a 50/50 state of uncertainty, where I don't weigh outcomes conditional on heads any more heavily in my mind than outcomes conditional on tails. You can call that number whatever you like, but it has to obey the probability laws on pain of stupidity. So I don't have the slightest hesitation about calling my outcome-weighting a probability."

That's all we're talking about here. This is exactly like the biased coin where you don't know what the bias is. All we know is that our hypothesis is either true or false. If that's all we know, there's no probability other than 50% that we can sensibly assign. (Maybe using fancy words like "maximum entropy" will help.)

I fully acknowledge that it's a rare situation when that's all we know. Usually, if we know enough to be able to state the hypothesis, we already have enough information to drive the probability away from 50%. I grant this. But 50% is still where the probability gets driven away from.

Denying this is tantamount to denying the existence of the number 0.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 17 August 2011 09:56:35AM 2 points [-]

I fully acknowledge that it's a rare situation when that's all we know.

When is this ever the situation?

Usually, if we know enough to be able to state the hypothesis, we already have enough information to drive the probability away from 50%. I grant this. But 50% is still where the probability gets driven away from.

Can you give an example of "driving the probability away from 50%"? I note that no one responded to my earlier request for such an example.

Comment author: lessdazed 17 August 2011 09:25:01PM -1 points [-]

When is this ever the situation?...Can you give an example of "driving the probability away from 50%"? I note that no one responded to my earlier request for such an example.

No one can give an example because it is logically impossible for it to be the situation, it's not just rare. It cannot be that "All we know is that our hypothesis is either true or false." because to know that something is a hypothesis entails knowing more than nothing. It's like saying "knowing that a statement is either false or a paradox, but having no information at all as to whether it is false or a paradox".