Zed comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Zed 14 August 2011 10:23AM

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Comment author: Zed 17 August 2011 01:35:44PM *  0 points [-]

It's purely a formality

I disagree with this bit. It's only purely a formality when you consider a single hypothesis, but when you consider a hypothesis that is comprised of several parts, each of which uses the prior of total ignorance, then the 0.5 prior probability shows up in the real math (that in turn affects the decisions you make).

I describe an example of this here: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/73g/take_heed_for_it_is_a_trap/4nl8?context=1#4nl8

If you think that the concept of the universal prior of total ignorance is purely a formality, i.e. something that can never affect the decisions you make, then I'd be very interested in your thoughts behind that.