= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Misha comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (187)
How do you know something about the conjunction? Have you manufactured evidence from a vacuum?
I don't think I am presuming them independent, I am merely stating that I have no information to favour a positive or negative correlation.
Look at it another way, suppose A and B are claims that I know nothing about. Then I also know nothing about A&B, A&(~B), (~A)&B and (~A)&(~B) (knowledge about any one of those would constitute knowledge about A and B). I do not think I can consistently hold that those four claims all have probability 0.5.
If you know nothing about A and B, then you know something about A&B. You know it is the conjunction of two things you know nothing about.
Since A=B is a possibility the uses of "two things" here is bit specious. You're basically saying you know A&B but that could stand for anything at all.
You know that either A and B are highly correlated (one way or the other) or P(A&B) is close to P(A) P(B).
Yeah, and I know that A is the disjunction of A&B and A&(~B), and that it is the negation of the negation of a proposition I know nothing about, and lots of other things. If we reading a statement and analysing its logical consequences to count as knowledge then we know infinitely many things about everything.