What are you working on?

jsalvatier

This is the fourth bimonthly What Are You Working On? thread. Thanks to atucker for reminding me to make this post. Click here to see previous threads. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started, those are for a different thread.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

This is the fourth bimonthly What Are You Working On? thread. Thanks to atucker for reminding me to make this post. Click here to see previous threads. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started, those are for a different thread.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

I am continuing recording predictions on PB.com, focusing right now on importing predictions from Intrade. I recently passed 1000 registered predictions (currently at more like 1070), and as I make more predictions, I'm taking notes for an article on what I've learned.
I am almost finished with my blind testing of Adderall pills; my main conclusion is currently shaping up to be 'it works for me, but they're expensive and they can badly mess up my sleep; armodafinil is better'. (Once I'm done, I can put the daily predictions of placebo vs Adderall into PB.com as well; then I need to check my Zeo records to see whether I am imagining the sleep thing or not.)
I continue my alternate-day 'standing on one leg before going to bed' experiment, based on Seth Roberts' results. So far I don't see much difference, so I'm probably going to have to continue this for at least as long as my melatonin Zeo experiment (EDIT: I've decided to stop it today. 70 nights of data ought to be enough. The analysis is at http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#one-legged-standing-analysis )
I'm a few characters away from finishing my half-Japanese character database; this is a silly non-rigorous project to see whether anime is biased and contrary to reality in presenting mostly characters with foreign mothers rather than foreign fathers. When I finish researching the last few characters, I can start posting requests for omitted characters in various forums and graph what I've found so far.
I have begun a new Wikipedia project: collecting all the instances where I posted a link or a link + excerpts on Wikipedia talk pages, so I can see whether they are almost universally ignored and rarely actually used in the article (as is my impression). I expect to find that my non-anime link/excerpts are incorporated more than the anime ones, inasmuch as the anime community on Wikipedia has been decimated.

Regarding 1: It seems like for most predictions you are taking whatever estimate people are making and then putting the same value in but with 5-10% less confidence. Is that your primary approach? You seem to be getting extremely accurate calibration this way especially when I compare the overall calibration to your calibration.

0James_Miller15y

How are you blind testing Adderall? Have you ever been mistaken about whether you were taking the placebo?

1NancyLebovitz15y

I look forward to the article about predictions.

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