Regarding 1: It seems like for most predictions you are taking whatever estimate people are making and then putting the same value in but with 5-10% less confidence. Is that your primary approach? You seem to be getting extremely accurate calibration this way especially when I compare the overall calibration to your calibration.
It's my primary approach when making predictions on things I'm not familiar with (any prediction starting with 'I'...). My general view is that when people aren't being outrageously incorrect in whatever fashion (like XiXiDu's recent Khan Academy prediction), they tend to be overconfident; the solution to that is adjusting their prediction towards 50%.
If you look at my Intrade-based predictions, you'll see that while sometimes I just punt and copy Intrade, sometimes I differ severely. It's a case by case thing.
(Also, I'm not sure you're interpreting the graphs right. My understanding is that the graphs show that I am substantially underconfident as compared to PB in general. EDIT: I seem to be wrong here.)
This is the fourth bimonthly What Are You Working On? thread. Thanks to atucker for reminding me to make this post. Click here to see previous threads. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines: