What are you working on?

jsalvatier

This is the fourth bimonthly What Are You Working On? thread. Thanks to atucker for reminding me to make this post. Click here to see previous threads. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started, those are for a different thread.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

This is the fourth bimonthly What Are You Working On? thread. Thanks to atucker for reminding me to make this post. Click here to see previous threads. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started, those are for a different thread.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

It's my primary approach when making predictions on things I'm not familiar with (any prediction starting with 'I'...). My general view is that when people aren't being outrageously incorrect in whatever fashion (like XiXiDu's recent Khan Academy prediction), they tend to be overconfident; the solution to that is adjusting their prediction towards 50%.

If you look at my Intrade-based predictions, you'll see that while sometimes I just punt and copy Intrade, sometimes I differ severely. It's a case by case thing.

(Also, I'm not sure you're interpreting the graphs right. My understanding is that the graphs show that I am substantially underconfident as compared to PB in general. EDIT: I seem to be wrong here.)

(Also, I'm not sure you're interpreting the graphs right. My understanding is that the graphs show that I am substantially underconfident as compared to PB in general.)

Every 10% range should have an actual certainty about midway in the range right? So for example, for the "50%" range a perfect calibration would be 55% (assuming equidistribution over the whole 50-60 range). For PB as a whole, every category is at least 10% off. For PB as a whole we get: 55% compared to an abysmal 37%, 65% compared to 58%, 75% compared to 58%, 85% compared to 70... (read more)

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What are you working on?

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What are you working on?

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