shminux comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (249)

Sort By: Popular

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: shminux 18 August 2011 06:49:12PM *  -2 points [-]

Did I summarize your point correctly:

  • an instinctive reaction of the type "you are so full of it" to any poorly supported extravagant claim has a fancy name "Bayesian adjustment" and so can be trusted
  • singularity research is one such claim
  • GiveWell's charity metrics penalize charities with high uncertainties
  • Give to GiveWell if you want to be sure your donation is not wasted

Edit: not saying that I agree with this, just checking if my understanding is not off-base.

Comment author: Nominull 19 August 2011 06:15:49AM 2 points [-]

explaining the math behind our instincts is usually a worthy goal. you call it "bayesian" because it is, of course, bayesian.

Comment author: Randaly 18 August 2011 10:00:06PM 4 points [-]

Actually, I had a negative reaction to this comment for the opposite reason- it seemed overly critical of the post. The first point seemed to be ignoring a fair amount of his argument, and instead focusing on criticizing what he named his method; the last point seemed to me to be impugning Holden's motives based off something he never actually said.

Comment author: shminux 18 August 2011 11:30:39PM 2 points [-]

thanks!

Comment author: [deleted] 18 August 2011 11:18:03PM 0 points [-]

Give to GiveWell if you want to be sure your donation is not wasted

Actually, they advocate that you should give to charities that both score highly on their metrics and pursue some goal that you yourself find worthy.

Comment author: multifoliaterose 18 August 2011 11:46:48PM 1 point [-]