Wei_Dai comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (249)

Sort By: Leading

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 18 August 2011 10:16:32PM 12 points [-]

I was having trouble understanding the first example of EEV, until I read this part of Will Crouch's original comment:

We tend to assume, in the absence of other information, that charities are average at implementing their intervention, whereas you seem to assume that charities are bad at implementing their intervention, until you have been shown concrete evidence that they are not bad at implementing their intervention.

I agree this is wrong. They failed to consider that charities that are above average will tend to make information available showing that they are above average, so absence of information in this case is Bayesian evidence that a charity is below average. Relevant LW post: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_of_absence/

Comment author: multifoliaterose 18 August 2011 11:06:20PM 0 points [-]

What you say is true, but even after taking into account the point about absence of evidence being evidence of absence one still needs to Bayesian adjust on account of measurement errors giving rise to some charities' activities being overvalued and others being undervalued according to the measurements.