= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (249)
Care to elaborate or give a reference?
See http://lesswrong.com/lw/6fd/observed_pascals_mugging/4fky and the replies.
Okay, I didn't mean a literal Solomonoff prior; I meant "what your posterior would be after starting with a Solomonoff prior, observing the natural/human world at some length and Bayesian updating accordingly." The prior alone contains essentially no information!
Observations would merely shrink the tails by a multiplicative constant, they would not change the shape.