endoself comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: endoself 19 August 2011 04:32:03AM *  2 points [-]

Your stated prior would cause you to ignore even strong evidence in favour of an existential risk charity. It is therefore wrong (at least in this domain).

Comment author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2011 04:55:00AM *  0 points [-]

I think that the right way to take future generations into account is to consider a log normal distribution with high variance. High variance allows for the existence of very high expected value options while still requiring massive Bayesian regression relative to other options in the face of sufficiently heavy uncertainty.