= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (249)
I think that the right way to take future generations into account is to consider a log normal distribution with high variance. High variance allows for the existence of very high expected value options while still requiring massive Bayesian regression relative to other options in the face of sufficiently heavy uncertainty.