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MichaelVassar comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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This seems so vague and abstract.
Let me suggest a concrete example: the existential risk of asteroid impacts. It is pretty easy to estimate the distribution of time till the next impact big enough to kill all humans. Astronomy is pretty well understood, so it is pretty easy to estimate the cost of searching the sky for dangerous objects. If you imagine this as an ongoing project, there is the problem of building lasting organizations. In the unlikely event that you find an object that will strike in a year, or in 30, there is the more difficult problem of estimating the chance it will be dealt with.
It would be good to see your take on this example, partly to clarify this article and partly to isolate some objections from others.
This was, in fact, the first example I ever brought Holden. IMHO he never really engaged with it, but he did find it interesting and maintained correspondence which brought him to the FAI point. (all this long before I was formally involved with SIAI)