Will_Newsome comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: Strange7 19 August 2011 12:17:13AM 2 points [-]

clearly beneficial action of giving money to the mugger.

If someone threatened to blow up the world with their magic powers unless I gave them a dollar, I'd say a better guess at the right thing to do would not be to pay them, but rather to kill them outright as quickly as possible. In the unlikely event that the mugger actually has such powers, I've just saved the world from an evil wizard with a very poor grasp of economics; otherwise, it's a valuable how-not-to story for the remaining con-artists and/or crazy people.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 19 August 2011 04:14:14PM *  5 points [-]

This is classic. "Should I give him a dollar, or kill him as quickly as possible? [insert abstract consequentialist reasoning.] So I think I'll kill him as quickly as possible."