multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: MichaelVassar 19 August 2011 02:17:49PM 21 points [-]

I'm pretty sure that I endorse the same method you do, and that the "EEV" approach is a straw man.
It's also the case that while I can endorse "being hesitant to embrace arguments that seem to have anti-common-sense implications (unless the evidence behind these arguments is strong) ", I can't endorse treating the parts of an argument that lack strong evidence (e.g. funding SIAI is the best way to help FAI) as justifications for ignoring the parts that have strong evidence (e.g. FAI is the highest EV priority around). In a case like that, the rational thing to do is to investigate more or find a third alternative, not to go on with business as usual.

Comment author: multifoliaterose 19 August 2011 04:17:49PM *  10 points [-]

I'm pretty sure that I endorse the same method you do, and that the "EEV" approach is a straw man.

The post doesn't highlight you as an example of someone who uses the EEV approach and I agree that there's no evidence that you do so. That said, it doesn't seem like the EEV approach under discussion is a straw man in full generality. Some examples:

  1. As lukeprog mentions, Anna Salamon gave the impression of using the EEV approach in one of her 2009 Singularity Summit talks.

  2. One also sees this sort of thing on LW from time to time, e.g. [1], [2].

  3. As Holden mentions, the issue came up in the 2010 exchange with Giving What We Can.