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Douglas_Knight comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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Yes, you should compute the danger multiple ways, counting asteroids, craters, and extinction events. If there are 3x too many craters, then it may be that 2/3 of impacts are caused by objects that we can't detect. Giving up on solving the whole or even most of the problem may sound bad, but it just reduces the expected value by a factor of 3, which is pretty small in this context.