handoflixue comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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Sufficiently-Friendly AI can be hard for SIAI-now but easy or medium for non-SIAI-now (someone else now, someone else future, SIAI future). I personally believe this, since SIAI-now is fucked up (and SIAI-future very well will be too). (I won't substantiate that claim here.) Eliezer didn't talk about SIAI specifically. (He probably thinks SIAI will be at least as likely to succeed as anyone else because he thinks he's super awesome, but it can't be assumed he'd assert that with confidence, I think.)
Will you substantiate it elsewhere?
Second that interest in hearing it substantiated elsewhere.