novalis comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: MichaelVassar 19 August 2011 02:19:51PM 2 points [-]

When is "soon" for these purposes. It seems to me that with continuing support, SIAI will be able to hire as many of the right programmers as we can find and effectively integrate into a research effort. We certainly would hire any such programmers now.

Comment author: novalis 19 August 2011 08:28:26PM *  1 point [-]

Well, looking at the post on SIAI finances from a few months back, SIAI's annual revenue is growing at a rate of roughly 100k/year, and thus would take nearly a century to reach 10 million / year. Of course, all sorts of things could change these numbers. Eliezer has stated that he believes that UFAI will happen somewhat sooner than a century.

Since SIAI does seem to have at least some unused budget for programmers now, I emailed a friend who might be a good fit for a research associate to suggest that he apply.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 22 August 2011 05:29:58PM 1 point [-]

Even if past values are linear, exponential estimates are probably more clarifying.