novalis comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: novalis 19 August 2011 08:28:26PM *  1 point [-]

Well, looking at the post on SIAI finances from a few months back, SIAI's annual revenue is growing at a rate of roughly 100k/year, and thus would take nearly a century to reach 10 million / year. Of course, all sorts of things could change these numbers. Eliezer has stated that he believes that UFAI will happen somewhat sooner than a century.

Since SIAI does seem to have at least some unused budget for programmers now, I emailed a friend who might be a good fit for a research associate to suggest that he apply.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 22 August 2011 05:29:58PM 1 point [-]

Even if past values are linear, exponential estimates are probably more clarifying.