Will_Newsome comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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OK, I think that explains that - Wikipedia is making the first assumption identified below, rather than the other one that he prefers:
No, Wikipedia mentions kinetic mixing then says that if it exists it must be weak, Wikipeda doesn't say it wouldn't exist (the evidence suggests it would exist). The Wikipedia article is just wrong. (ETA: I mean, it is just wrong to assume that it's weak.) (Unless I'm misinterpreting what you mean by "the first assumption identified below"?)
What I meant was that both the paper and Wikipedia regard kinetic mixing as weak and relatively unimportant; then they differ about the next effect, the one that would be strong and would matter to Tunguska.