multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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And the point which I was making was that EEV does not do this too often, it does it just often enough, which I think is pretty clear mathematically.
I don't see what you're driving at with the opportunity cost of X/10. Either we have less than $1,100,000 in which case the opportunity cost is X or we have more than $1,100,000 in which case it is zero. Either we can do X or we can't, we can't do part of it or more of it.
If naive EEV causes problems then the problem is with naivete, not with EEV. Any decision procedure can lead to stupid actions if fed with stupid information.
You make the case that local philanthropy is better than global philanthropy on an individual basis, and if you are correct (which I don't think you are) then EEV would choose to engage in local philanthropy.
The correct response to our fallibility is not to go do random other things. Just because my best guess might be wrong doesn't mean I should trade it for my second best guess, which is by definition even more likely to be wrong.
A cognitive bias by another name is still a cognitive bias.
I agree that it isn't very important. Regardless of anything else, the possibility of more than a tiny proportion of donors actually applying EEV is not even remotely on the table.
Note that in the link that you're referring to I argue both for and against local philanthropy as opposed to global philanthropy. Anyway, I wasn't referencing the post as a whole, I was referencing the point about the "act locally" heuristic solving a coordination problem that naive EEV fails to solve. It's not clear that it's humanly possible (or desirable) to derive that that heuristic from first principles. Rather than trying to replace naive EEV with sophisticated EEV; one might be better off with scraping exclusive use of EEV altogether.