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Multiheaded comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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"Nuclear proliferation" were not words I was expecting to see at the end of that sentence.
I don't see how nuclear war is an existential risk. It's not capable of destroying humanity, as far as I can tell, and would give more time to think and less ability to do with respect to AI. Someone could set cobalt bombs affixed to rockets in hidden silos and set them such that one explodes in the atmosphere every year for a thousand years or something, but I don't see how accidental nuclear war would end humanity outside of some unknown unknown sort of effect.
As far as rebuilding goes, I'm pretty confident it wouldn't be too hard so long as information survives, and I'm pretty confident it would. We don't need to build aircraft carriers, eat cows, and have millions of buildings with massive glass windows at 72 degrees, and we don't need to waste years upon years of productivity with school (babysitting for the very young and expensive signalling for young adults). Instead, we could try education, Polgar-sister style.