Larks comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: Larks 20 August 2011 08:29:02PM 0 points [-]

There seems to be nothing in EEV that penalizes relative ignorance or relatively poorly grounded estimates, or rewards investigation and the forming of particularly well grounded estimates. If I can literally save a child I see drowning by ruining a $1000 suit, but in the same moment I make a wild guess that this $1000 could save 2 lives if put toward medical research, EEV seems to indicate that I should opt for the latter.

I don't understand this objection. What sort of subjective probability are we meant to be ascribing to the 'wild guess'? If less than 0.5, as would seem appropriate for a 'wild guess', then you still save the child. If greater than 0.5, it doesn't seem to be a wild guess at all, but a firmly supported belief, and it's entirely reasonable to donate to medical research.