Larks comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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Comments (249)
I don't understand this objection. What sort of subjective probability are we meant to be ascribing to the 'wild guess'? If less than 0.5, as would seem appropriate for a 'wild guess', then you still save the child. If greater than 0.5, it doesn't seem to be a wild guess at all, but a firmly supported belief, and it's entirely reasonable to donate to medical research.