prase comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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I'm very sure that in the section to which you refer "estimated value" means "result of a Fermi calcuation" (or something similar) as opposed "mean value of probability distribution updated by the Fermi calculation." (I personally find this to be clear from the text but may have been influenced by prior correspondence with Holden on this topic.)
The reference to "differences in the reliability and robustness of the estimates" refers to the size of the error bars (whether explicit or implicit) about the initial estimate.
Here too I'm very sure that the post is discussing a useful everyday technique when formal updating is unfeasible rather than an extension to probability theory valid on a fundamental level.
Here we had a simple misunderstanding; I meant "updating from the initial (Fermi calculation-based) estimate to a revised estimate after taking into account one's Bayesian prior" rather than "updating one's Bayesian prior to a revised Bayesian prior based on the initial (Fermi calculation-based) estimate."
I was saying "when there are large error bars about the initial estimate, the initial estimate should be revised heavily", not "when there are large error bars about the initial estimate, one's Bayesian prior should be revised heavily." On the contrary, larger the error bars about the initial estimate, the less one's Bayesian prior should change based on the estimate.
I imagine that we're in agreement here. I think that the article is probably pitched at someone with less technical expertise than you have; what seems obvious and standard to you might be genuinely new to many people and this may lead to you to assume that it's saying more than it is.
Then I suppose that we don't have disagreement, too.