Will_Newsome comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: Will_Newsome 21 August 2011 07:06:52AM *  2 points [-]

Mirror matter is indeed very speculative, but surely not less than 4.3 out of a million speculative, no? Mirror matter is significantly more worrisome than Apophis. I have no idea whether it's more or less worrisome than the entire set of normal-matter Apophis-like risks; does anyone have a link to a good (non-alarmist) analysis of impact risks for the next century? Snippets of Global Catastrophic Risks seem to indicate that they're not a big concern relatively speaking.

ETA: lgkglgjag anthropics messes up everything