Will_Newsome comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: katydee 21 August 2011 11:15:35AM *  18 points [-]

I think the problem here is that your posting style, to be frank, often obscures your point.

In most cases, posts that consist of a to-the-point answer followed by longer explanations use the initial statement to make a concise case. For instance, in this post, my first sentence sums up what I think about the situation and the rest explains that thought in more detail so as to convey a more nuanced impression.

By contrast, when Eliezer asked "What's the output here that the money is paying for," your first sentence was "Money would pay for marginal output, e.g. in the form of increased collaboration, I think, since the best Friendliness-cognizant x-rationalists would likely already be working on similar things." This does not really answer his question, and while you clarify this with your later points, the overall message is garbled.

The fact that your true answer is buried in the middle of a paragraph does not really help things much. Though I can see what you are trying to say, I can't in good and honest conscience describe it as clear. Had you answered, on the other hand, "Money would pay for the technical analysis necessary to determine as well as possible the feasibility and difficulty of FAI..." as your first sentence, I think your post would have been more clear and more likely to be understood.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 21 August 2011 11:32:34AM *  3 points [-]

The sentences I put before the direct answer to Eliezer's question were meant to correct some of Eliezer's misapprehensions that were more fundamental than the object of his question. Eliezer's infamous for uncharitably misinterpreting people and it was clear he'd misinterpreted some key aspects of my original comment, e.g. my purpose in writing it. If I'd immediately directly answered his question that would have been dishonest; it would have contributed further to his having a false view of what I was actually talking about. Less altruistically it would be like I was admitting to his future selves or to external observers that I agreed that his model of my purposes was accurate and that this model could legitimately be used to assert that I was unjustified in any of many possible ways. Thus I briefly (a mere two sentences) attempted to address what seemed likely to be Eliezer's underlying confusions before addressing his object level question. (Interestingly Eliezer does this quite often, but unfortunately he often assumes people are confused in ways that they are not.)

Given these constraints, what should I have done? In retrospect I should have gone meta, of course, like always. What else?

Thanks much for the critique.

Comment author: katydee 21 August 2011 12:04:39PM *  5 points [-]

Given those constraints, I would probably write something like "Money would pay for marginal output in the form of increased collaboration on the technical analysis necessary to determine as well as possible the feasibility and difficulty of FAI" for my first sentence and elaborate as strictly necessary. That seems rather more cumbersome than I'd like, but it's also a lot of information to try and convey in one sentence!

Alternatively, I would consider something along the lines of "Money would pay for the technical analysis necessary to determine as well as possible the feasibility and difficulty of FAI, but not directly-- since the best Friendliness-cognizant x-rationalists would likely already be working on similar things, the money would go towards setting up better communication, coordination, and collaboration for that group."

That said, I am unaware of any reputation Eliezer has in the field of interpreting people, and personally haven't received the impression that he's consistently unusually bad or uncharitable at it. Then again, I have something of a reputation-- at least in person-- for being too charitable, so perhaps I'm being too light on Eliezer (or you?) here.