CarlShulman comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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I don't think so - assuming we are trying to maximise p(save all humans).
It appears that at least one of us is making a math mistake.
Likewise. ETA: on what I take as the default meaning of "confidence in averting" in this context, P(avert disaster|disaster otherwise impending).