bgaesop comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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Incomplete response:
Jah. Well, at least determining whether or not "code first" is even reasonable, yeah, which is a difficult question in itself and only partially tied in with making direct progress on FAI.
You seem to have missed Oracle AI? (Eliezer's dismissal of it isn't particularly meaningful.) I agree with your concerns. This is why the main focus would at least initially be determining whether or not "code first" is a plausible approach (difficulty-wise and safety-wise). The value of information on that question is incredibly high and as you've pointed out it has not been sufficiently researched.
Basically everything. SingInst is focused on funding a large research program and gaining the prestige necessary to influence (academic) culture and academic and political policy. They're not currently doing any research on Friendly AI, and their political situation is such that I don't expect them to be able to do so effectively for a while, if ever. I will not clarify this. (Actually their research associates are working on FAI-related things, but SingInst doesn't pay them to do that.)
Learning, mostly. Working with an unnamed group of x-risk-cognizant people that LW hasn't heard of, in a way unrelated to their setting up a non-profit.
Could you tell us about them?