timtyler comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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Uncertainty in estimates of the expected value of an intervention tend to have the effect of naturally reducing it - since there are may ways to fail and few ways to succeed.
For instance think about drug trials. If someone claims that their results say there's a 50% chance of the drug curing a disease, and there's a 50% chance that they got their results muddled up with those of some different drug, that often makes the expected value of the treatment fall to around 25% - since most drugs don't work.