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multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

67 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: multifoliaterose 24 August 2011 04:41:27AM *  0 points [-]

I agree with most of what you say here, but fear that the discussion is veering in the direction of a semantics dispute. So I'll just clarify my position by saying:

• Constructing an airtight argument for the relative lack of utilitarian value of e.g. all humanities charities relative to VillageReach is a nontrivial task (and indeed, may be impossible).

• Even if one limits oneself to the consideration of 10^(-4) of the field of all charities, one is still left with a very sizable analytical problem.

•The use of time saving heuristics is essential to getting anything valuable done.