multifoliaterose comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 24 August 2011 12:14:48AM 5 points [-]

I currently believe that donating to SIAI has higher utilitarian expected value than donating to VillagReach but also presently believe that a few years of searching will yield a charity at least twice as cost-effective than either at the margin.

Interesting. Have you explained these beliefs anywhere?

Comment author: multifoliaterose 24 August 2011 07:52:25PM 1 point [-]

No. I'll try to explicate my thoughts soon. Thanks for asking.

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