handoflixue comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong

75 Post author: HoldenKarnofsky 18 August 2011 11:34PM

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Comment author: GuySrinivasan 21 September 2011 04:11:36AM 1 point [-]

I don't think this is true. I think the majority of the work that the adjustment does is due to the assumption that high value actions are extraordinarily unlikely.

It's entirely possible that your expectation in situations when you think Buffett is offering $1b is smaller than your expectation in situations when you think Buffett is offering $100. Asking to switch to $100 from $1b misses the point, as by then whether you're facing a charlatan is probably locked in.