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Jiro comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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???
What precisely is the objection to Pascal's Mugging in the post? Just that the probability for the mugger being able to deliver goes down with N? This objection has been given thousands of times, and the counter response is that the probability can't go down fast enough to outweigh increase in utility. This is formalised here.
(Yes, I know this is an old post.)
Suppose that the probability I assign to the mugger being able to deliver is equal to 1 / ((utility delivered if the mugger is telling the truth) ^ 2). Wouldn't that be a probability that goes down fast enough to outweigh the increase in utility?
I'm afraid that I don't remember the details of the paper I linked to above, you'll have to look at it to see why they don't consider that a valid distribution (perhaps because the things that the mugger says have to be counted as evidence, and this can't decrease that quickly for some reason? I'm afraid I don't remember.)