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Jiro comments on Why We Can't Take Expected Value Estimates Literally (Even When They're Unbiased) - Less Wrong
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(Yes, I know this is an old post.)
Suppose that the probability I assign to the mugger being able to deliver is equal to 1 / ((utility delivered if the mugger is telling the truth) ^ 2). Wouldn't that be a probability that goes down fast enough to outweigh the increase in utility?
I'm afraid that I don't remember the details of the paper I linked to above, you'll have to look at it to see why they don't consider that a valid distribution (perhaps because the things that the mugger says have to be counted as evidence, and this can't decrease that quickly for some reason? I'm afraid I don't remember.)