Mercurial comments on Good resource for marketing research? - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
Paul Graham (guru of internet startups) has this to say:
Hah! That's pretty clever!
The thing is, most businesses fail. I keep hearing slightly different statistics on this, but roughly speaking, any given random American business has somewhere around a 98% chance of failing in the first five years. This means that if you are trying to start a business and you listen to others who are trying to start a business and you hear the same kinds of thoughts and business strategies from them as you are using, the chances are extremely good your business will fail.
In other words, common sense is utter trash for starting a business that works. Pragmatic sense is important, I'm pretty sure, but common sense is entrepreneurial poison. So if we "try to get people to pay [us] for stuff" using our naive intuition, we will probably just lose the business game.
So, what to use instead of naive intuition?
I really don't know!
From Mike Darwin's "The Armories of the Latter Day Laputas, Part 5":
Better than you thought, perhaps, but the mortality doesn't go away:
If those two quotes don't help, possibly other statistics in Darwin's article would?
Ah, this does look quite valuable! It's not quite what i was looking for, but it'll be helpful nonetheless. Thanks!