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DSimon comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: DSimon 16 September 2011 07:30:08AM 4 points [-]

Would this issue also apply to picking a contractor for a project based on the lowest bid?

Comment author: Solvent 16 September 2011 09:07:15PM 2 points [-]

No, because the lowest bid is a commitment from the contractor, not an estimate. This particular problem arises from trying to pick the best option from several estimates.

Comment author: CronoDAS 18 September 2011 10:43:32PM 7 points [-]

Sometimes contractors run out of money before finishing and you have to pay more or they leave you with a half-finished project :(

Comment author: PhilGoetz 21 September 2011 12:05:23AM 1 point [-]

It would probably lead to contractors selected that way often going over budget.