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DSimon comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong
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Comments (76)
Would this issue also apply to picking a contractor for a project based on the lowest bid?
No, because the lowest bid is a commitment from the contractor, not an estimate. This particular problem arises from trying to pick the best option from several estimates.
Sometimes contractors run out of money before finishing and you have to pay more or they leave you with a half-finished project :(
It would probably lead to contractors selected that way often going over budget.