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NancyLebovitz comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 16 September 2011 04:35:31PM 2 points [-]

If I understand this correctly, there's an empirical problem.

How optimistic your most optimistic estimate is going to be is going to be a matter of temperament and knowledge for individuals, and group culture for groups. It seems to me that the correction would need to be determined by experience. Or is this the "appropriate prior" problem?

When I'd only seen the title for this article, I thought it was going to be about the question of how much effort you should put into optimizing.