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handoflixue comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: handoflixue 16 September 2011 07:25:10PM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure how exactly this differs from the GiveWell blog post along the same lines? You seem to both be dealing with roughly the same problem (decision making under uncertainty), and reach the same conclusion (pay attention to the standard deviation, use Bayesian updates)

I did find your graph in the middle a rather useful illustration, but otherwise don't feel like I've come away with anything really new...

Comment author: Solvent 16 September 2011 09:05:00PM 5 points [-]

Well, to start with, Luke has provided an actual mechanism for this mistake to occur by.