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Nisan comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: Nisan 16 September 2011 09:16:15PM 5 points [-]

I think the case where all the choices has a "true expected value" of 0 is picked out merely to illustrate the problem.

Comment author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 11:08:25PM 0 points [-]

Yes.

Comment author: Mass_Driver 17 September 2011 12:06:25AM 4 points [-]

That's fine; you're more than welcome to illustrate the problem, and your analysis does in fact do that. It does it very well; your writing, as always, is very lucid.

However, you finish the article by claiming that Bayesian analysis can correct for the problem, and this is something that (I don't think) you even begin to show. Bayesian analysis solves the corner case, but does it bring any traction at all on a typical case?