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Mass_Driver comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong
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I think the case where all the choices has a "true expected value" of 0 is picked out merely to illustrate the problem.
Yes.
That's fine; you're more than welcome to illustrate the problem, and your analysis does in fact do that. It does it very well; your writing, as always, is very lucid.
However, you finish the article by claiming that Bayesian analysis can correct for the problem, and this is something that (I don't think) you even begin to show. Bayesian analysis solves the corner case, but does it bring any traction at all on a typical case?