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Oscar_Cunningham comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 18 September 2011 09:45:46AM 0 points [-]

But if you know the boxes were originally drawn from N(50,100) then the number on the box is no longer the correct Bayesian mean. All I'm arguing is that once you have your Bayesian expected value you don't need to update it any further.

Comment author: Manfred 18 September 2011 10:13:42AM *  3 points [-]

All I'm arguing is that once you have your Bayesian expected value you don't need to update it any further.

That's pretty uncontroversial, but in practice it means that you end up penalizing high-noise boxes with high values (and boosting high-noise boxes with low values), which I think is a nontrivial result.