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PhilGoetz comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 21 September 2011 12:01:13AM *  3 points [-]

This is interesting, but I don't see how to apply the solution. Presumably I either have no priors; or the priors are going to be generated by the same process I use to generate the values I am combining them with.

The resulting bias should be smaller if you choose the top 2 or 3 alternatives. E.g., give to 3 charities, not to 1.

How do market traders deal with this problem?