garethrees comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong
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The earliest reference I can track down is from 1952. In Roger Sessions: a biography (2008), Andrea Olmstead writes:
(The work that Sessions had performed this role in appears to have been Man who ate the popermack in the mid-1920s.)
Sessions' essay (originally published in The Score and then collected in Roger Sessions on Music) begins:
An entertaining later reference to this quotation appears in Dialogues and a diary by Igor Stravinsky and Robert Craft (1963), where Stravinsky tabulates the differences between himself and Schoenberg, culminating in this comparison: