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The_Jaded_One comments on The Optimizer's Curse and How to Beat It - Less Wrong

44 Post author: lukeprog 16 September 2011 02:46AM

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Comment author: The_Jaded_One 08 January 2017 11:04:20AM 0 points [-]

If X = Skill + Luck, with Skill and Luck both random variables, then selecting max(X) will get you something that has high Skill and high Luck.

If Estimate = TrueVal + Error, then max(Estimate) will have both high TrueVal and high Error.

This obvious insight has many applications, especially when the selection is done over a very large number of entities, e.g. trying to emulate the habits of billionaires in order to become rich.