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John_Maxwell_IV comments on Selecting Rationalist Groups - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 April 2009 04:21PM

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Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 02 April 2009 09:16:37PM 2 points [-]

Average all the group members' suggestions as to how many Rhode Islands will fit in Alaska, then throw out the guess farthest from the average, re-average, and make that the center of your distribution.

Comment author: MichaelHoward 02 April 2009 09:41:30PM 4 points [-]

Ah... sorry for not being clear. My suggestion was meant to help participants test their rationality, learn about biases, and internalize that knowledge through experience, not as a way to improve their estimate.