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lessdazed comments on A History of Bayes' Theorem - Less Wrong
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Intrade got it equally right, and to be honest there's nothing particularly "Bayesian" about Nate Silver's methodology. It's just intelligently weighted average of polling data.
Theories describing reality at a deep level have problems such as unclear intellectual ownership of intelligent methods when the methods aren't clearly inspired by the theoretical tradition. It's a good problem to have.