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Mass_Driver comments on A History of Bayes' Theorem - Less Wrong
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Yes, that fits the bill! Looks like a good thinker and a strong writer, too. Know anyone in comparative or international politics?
Alas, no. I know of Gelman because of his Bayesian stats textbook, not because of his political science background. You could email and ask him directly -- he's been responsive to emails from me and sometimes posts emails from others and his responses to his blog.