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Thrasymachus comments on Help Fund Lukeprog at SIAI - Less Wrong
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What do you mean by unsurprised? Some words don't communicate as well as we feel they do.
My sentence was trash, sorry!
What I should have said:
"I have a 0.5ish estimate of the minicamps success, with big error bars. The suspicious behaviour is no more than minute confirmation for it being a failure."
Or something like that.